Ayatollah’s power may collapse in less than a week as Iran’s street protests expand
A masked demonstrator holds a picture of Iran’s Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, who now lives in Washington, DC AP
Experts say Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei could be facing the most serious threat to his rule in decades, with some warning the regime may have only days left if nationwide protests continue to grow.
“I suspect the Supreme Leader has about a week, maybe two at most, to get this under control,” said Reuel Marc Gerecht, a former CIA officer who worked on Iran and is now with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
Gerecht said the regime’s ability to survive depends on whether security forces remain loyal as protests expand. “Once demonstrations reach the tens of thousands, and especially the hundreds of thousands, the regime faces a real dilemma,” he said. “That’s a massive number of people to shoot at, and it could cause cracks within enforcement units. At that point, the Basij paramilitary forces could become ineffective.”
Protests have now spread to every province in Iran. Despite an internet blackout, images of violent clashes between demonstrators and security forces — including in Khamenei’s hometown of Mashhad — have continued to circulate outside the country.
Iranian dissident and analyst Ali Reza Nourizadeh said the regime appears paralyzed. “If the people continue, it’s just another week of power,” he said. “They are nearly collapsed. They can’t make decisions.”
Adding to the pressure are public warnings from President Trump, who cautioned Iran’s leadership against firing on protesters. “Iran is looking at FREEDOM, perhaps like never before. The USA stands ready to help!!!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
“They are terrified,” Nourizadeh said. “They fear Trump will act. They worry that what happened in Venezuela could be repeated in Iran, or that Khamenei’s compound could be targeted.”
How the Trump administration might respond remains unclear, though reports indicate preliminary discussions have taken place regarding possible military options.
“One possibility would be a strike on an Iranian military target in response to the shooting of protesters,” said Brett Bruen, president of Global Situation Room. “The goal wouldn’t be to hit police directly, but to signal that repression carries consequences.” Bruen added that the U.S. strike on Iran in June expanded President Trump’s range of options, though any action could prompt Iran to attempt asymmetric retaliation.
Behind the scenes, uncertainty is growing within Iran’s leadership. Andrew Apostolou of the Britain Israel Communications and Research Center said there are rumors that some regime insiders are quietly reaching out to the United States.
“They’re hoping to pull off something similar to what Delcy Rodríguez did in Venezuela after Nicolás Maduro was captured,” Apostolou said. “The message is essentially: ‘I can be your replacement.’”
So far, there are no confirmed defections among Iran’s military or senior security officials. “For now, the regime appears cohesive,” Apostolou said. “But these situations can change very quickly when survival is on the line.”
Meanwhile, Reza Pahlavi — the son of Iran’s former shah, who was overthrown in 1979 — published an op-ed this week offering to serve as a transitional figure if the regime collapses.
“Nostalgia is running high right now, and Pahlavi benefits from that,” said Gerecht.
The crisis also revives lessons from the past. Former President Barack Obama later acknowledged that his administration’s cautious response to Iran’s 2009 protests was a mistake.
“The Iranians will accuse the U.S. of meddling no matter what,” Bruen said. “So the question is how to engage in a way that weakens the regime without handing them more propaganda.”
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