National Poll: Deportation & ICE Overwhelmingly Supported by Voters – and Democrats Pay a Political Price on the Issue, Especially over a Shutdown

WASHINGTON, D.C. (February 2, 2026) – Cygnal, a private polling and analytics firm, has released a new national survey indicating broad voter support for enforcing federal immigration law, including deportation of individuals in the United States without legal status and continued funding for Immigration & Customs Enforcement (ICE).

The results challenge claims from some media outlets and Democratic leaders that deportation and ICE enforcement are broadly unpopular with voters.

Key Findings

According to the survey:

73% of respondents say entering the U.S. without legal permission is breaking the law.
Voters support deporting those in the country illegally by a 61–34 margin.
54% want ICE to enforce federal immigration laws and remove individuals here unlawfully.
58% oppose efforts to defund ICE, including majorities of independents and swing voters.

Political Impact of Defunding ICE

The survey also examined voter reactions to proposals to defund ICE or shut down the government to prevent the agency from enforcing immigration law.

The generic congressional ballot shifts from a Democratic advantage of four points to an even race if Democrats are seen as opposing ICE.
If Democrats were to force a government shutdown to defund ICE, Republicans gain a two-point advantage — a six-point swing overall.
Swing voters move 16 points toward Republicans under that scenario.

Cygnal concluded that voters view Democratic positioning on ICE enforcement as significantly out of step with majority opinion.

Perceptions of the Border Situation

The poll found that most voters view illegal immigration as a serious national problem:

64% of likely midterm voters say it is a problem.
71% of swing voters agree.
97% of Republicans and 60% of independents say it is a problem.
Democrats were the only group where a majority did not characterize illegal immigration as a serious issue.

Electoral Implications

Cygnal’s analysis suggests that immigration enforcement could be a politically advantageous issue for Republicans and a challenge for Democrats, particularly if Democrats are perceived as attempting to weaken enforcement agencies.

“Voters see illegal immigration as a straightforward question of law and order,” said Brent Buchanan, CEO and founder of Cygnal. “The data indicates Americans want the law enforced and respond negatively to politicians who attempt to block ICE from carrying out its responsibilities.”

Methodology

The probabilistic survey was conducted January 27–28, 2026, among 1,004 likely 2026 midterm general election voters. The margin of error is ±3.09%. Known registered voters were contacted via live phone calls and text-to-web interviews. Results were weighted to reflect a likely general election electorate.

Cygnal has published the full PDF presentation and memo detailing the survey results.

About Cygnal

Led by CEO and pollster Brent Buchanan, author of America’s Emotional Divide, Cygnal is an international public opinion and predictive analytics firm known for its multi-mode polling and message analysis. The firm reports a 95% accuracy rate in the 2024 election cycle and has conducted more than 4,500 polls across all 50 states and over 20 countries, advising thousands of campaigns, corporations, and organizations.

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