Russia watches as ally Iran edges closer to collapse. Here’s why it matters for Moscow
Iranians gather while blocking a street during a protest in Tehran, Iran on January 9, 2026. Mahsa | Afp | Getty Image
As Iran’s future grows increasingly uncertain amid escalating civil unrest, its key ally Russia appears limited to observing events from the sidelines while the United States weighs its next steps toward the Islamic Republic.
President Donald Trump has not ruled out the use of military force against Iran’s conservative religious leadership, which has governed the country since 1979. On Tuesday, he reiterated that possibility, warning that the United States would take “very strong action” if Iranian authorities carried out executions of detained protesters. Trump has also said that any country continuing business with Iran would face a 25% tariff.
Developments in Iran are being closely watched in Moscow, where Tehran is viewed as a critical strategic, military, economic, and trade partner in the Middle East.
The potential loss of another regional ally would be deeply concerning for Russia, particularly after recent setbacks to its influence in Venezuela, Syria, and parts of the Caucasus. Analysts say Iran plays a uniquely important role in Russia’s regional ambitions.
“Moscow sees the potential loss of Iran as a much more significant risk to its regional posture than the loss of Syria, Venezuela, or even Armenia,” Max Hess, founder of political risk consultancy Enmetena Advisory, told CNBC. He noted that Iran’s ability to project power in the region gives Russia a valuable platform to expand its own influence.
Mario Bikarski, senior analyst for Europe and Central Asia at Verisk Maplecroft, agreed, adding that instability in Iran could spill over into the Caucasus, the region separating Iran and Russia.
“Russia has seen protests in Iran before and usually stayed silent, assuming the regime could withstand pressure,” Bikarski said. “But this time the pressure is both domestic and external, and it has been building for years.” He warned that a collapse of the Iranian government could force Russia to scramble to contain instability near its borders while trying to preserve some regional influence.
If Iran were to fall into a leadership vacuum, with rival factions competing for power, Bikarski said it could result in serious security challenges not only for Russia but for the entire region.
A cautious partnership
Neither the Kremlin nor President Vladimir Putin has publicly commented on the unrest in Iran. Such restraint is typical when Russia is assessing how unfolding events may affect its strategic interests.
Russian state media has minimized coverage of the protests, while officials have blamed the unrest on alleged foreign interference, without providing evidence. Russia’s Foreign Ministry warned Tuesday that the situation could have “disastrous consequences” for Middle East stability and global security. Sergei Shoigu, secretary of Russia’s Security Council, echoed Iran’s claims that outside powers were meddling in its internal affairs.
Russia and Iran have long been aligned by shared opposition to Western influence and by international sanctions. That relationship deepened after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when Iran became one of the few countries willing to provide Moscow with military assistance. Iran has acknowledged supplying drones to Russia, though it claims deliveries occurred before the war. Western officials allege Iran also provided missiles, ammunition, and artillery.
In exchange, Iran reportedly received Russian military technology, intelligence support, and assistance with its space and missile programs. Tehran was also believed to be interested in Russian Su-35 fighter jets and S-400 air defense systems, though it remains unclear whether those transfers occurred.
However, cracks in the partnership became visible last year when Russia refrained from backing Iran during heightened tensions with Israel and amid U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Analysts said at the time that Russia was both unable and unwilling to risk a direct confrontation with the United States and Israel while heavily committed to the war in Ukraine.
Limits of the alliance
That restraint served as a reminder to Iran of the limits of its relationship with Moscow—limits that are becoming increasingly evident as unrest continues.
“There is nothing meaningful Russia can provide to save the Iranian regime at this stage,” said Bilal Saab, associate fellow at Chatham House. “The opportunity to support the regime domestically likely never existed once the Iranian people rose up.”
Hess echoed that view, saying it is highly unlikely Russia would commit resources to propping up Iran’s leadership. “Russia prioritizes its own interests and does not truly believe in alliances—only in ways to project power,” he said.
If Iran were to experience a regime change, Russia would likely attempt to re-establish ties with any successor government, Bikarski said, in an effort to avoid being pushed out of the Middle East altogether.
“Russia would try to re-engage with whoever comes next and ensure that its interests align with the new leadership,” he said. “Being completely sidelined in the region would be a very undesirable outcome for Moscow.”
While Russia currently lacks the capacity to project significant military power or expand trade in the region, analysts say it remains determined to maintain its role as a regional player and avoid ceding all influence to the United States.
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