Cuba Could Collapse Under U.S. Pressure on Venezuela

The Wall Street Journal reports that Washington’s latest pressure campaign against Venezuela may be hitting hardest not in Caracas, but 1,300 miles away in Cuba, where the country is already facing its worst economic crisis in decades. The United States has begun enforcing a partial blockade of Venezuelan oil exports by going after sanctioned tankers—vessels responsible for transporting about 70% of Venezuela’s crude. According to the Associated Press, two tankers have already been seized, and U.S. authorities are pursuing a third.

Because Venezuela provides roughly 40% of Cuba’s imported fuel, analysts warn that major disruptions to those shipments could be devastating. “It would be the collapse of the Cuban economy, no question about it,” said Jorge Piñón of the University of Texas at Austin. The New York Times has similarly described Venezuelan oil as Cuba’s “secret lifeline.”

Cuba’s close relationship with Venezuela dates back to 1999, when Hugo Chávez took power. Cuban intelligence services have since played a key role in supporting Chávez and, later, Nicolás Maduro against internal and external threats. Meanwhile, conditions inside Cuba have sharply deteriorated. The power grid is faltering, poverty is widespread, garbage collection has broken down, water service is unreliable, and diseases such as dengue and chikungunya are spreading. Since 2020, more than 2.7 million people—about a quarter of the population—have left the country, a level of emigration that one Havana-based demographer compares to what is typically seen in wartime.

President Miguel Díaz-Canel has denounced the tanker seizures as piracy and acknowledged a severe shortage of basic goods, while pledging efforts to restore “macroeconomic stability.” Economists remain pessimistic. “You could say it’s as bad as it can get,” said Ricardo Torres Pérez of American University in Washington. “And we also know it can get worse.”

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