Betting Markets’ Midterm Predictions Were Dead On: Now They’re Saying DeSantis’s Odds of Becoming POTUS Are Skyrocketing
In the wake of Republicans’ historic midterm losses, prediction markets indicate that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s odds of becoming the 2028 Republican presidential nominee are soaring.
Prediction markets correctly forecasted that Democrats would secure at least 53 seats in the Senate while steamrolling the Republicans in the House, according to CNBC.
“It’s now routinely hours between when prediction markets call it versus the TV networks,” Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan said. “No knock to them, but now there’s Polymarket, and many people are realizing they want to know what’s happening in real time.”
So what’s happening with 2028?
Prediction markets are riding the “Ron wave” after Florida was a rare Republican stronghold even as the blue wave inundated Republican hopes elsewhere, according to Townhall.
Websites such as Kalshi and Polymarket downgraded Vice President J.D. Vance’s odds of being the GOP nominee while DeSantis gained ground.
Vance fell eight points to 27 percent, while DeSantis, who was barely visible at 4.4 percent, rose to 19 percent on Kalshi.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio dropped to 21 percent, down 3 points.
DeSantis drew attention this week after hitting hard on issues where Republicans lost ground with voters — including the Iran war and its impact on gasoline prices, as noted by Action Network.
“We just got to be honest. Gas is higher. It hurts people, working-class people, and it’s higher because of this conflict. That’s just a fact,” he said.
He also said Republicans are out of sync with voters in support of data centers and artificial intelligence.
“This is DeSantis’ time,” conservative radio host Jenna Ellis said, according to Politico.
“DeSantis is in a unique position because he is neither MAGA nor establishment,” she continued, adding that he “can and will — and has — criticized both while remaining strong and principled.”
In assessing the election results, the Miami Herald noted, “Tuesday night’s elections pulled DeSantis away from lame-duck limbo and thrust him into wall-to-wall national media speculation that he will run for president again,” noting that DeSantis has not ruled out another campaign for president.
“His political capital to mount such a run shifted overnight. Instead of the governor who went against Trump and failed, he’s now the face of the final large GOP stronghold state left standing ahead of a 2028 presidential run with difficult electoral math for Republicans,” the outlet reported.
Republican former Miami Mayor Francis Suarez also said the GOP needs to make wholesale changes, according to Fox News.
“Republicans need to simplify their message. They need to be message discipline like Democrats were in this cycle. And then they got to find young, articulate, attractive candidates like the Democrats have found,” he said.
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