Iran’s Team Will Be Emboldened by Control of Strait: Ex-Officials

Officials who previously worked in the U.S. government believe Iran is likely to take a firm stance during negotiations scheduled this weekend in Pakistan. According to reporting from the Wall Street Journal, Iranian leaders enter the talks with what they see as new leverage because of their influence over the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route through which a significant portion of the world’s oil and energy shipments travel.

Even though Iran suffered military setbacks in recent confrontations, some analysts say its strategic position may actually be stronger. Alan Eyre, who served as a U.S. negotiator during the Iran nuclear deal talks, said Tehran may view its hold over the strait as a powerful deterrent. In his view, that leverage could lessen Iran’s urgency to move its nuclear program toward developing weapons.

Major disagreements remain between Washington and Tehran, particularly over the future of Iran’s nuclear activities. Ilan Goldenberg, a former Pentagon official who worked on Iran policy, said he sees little overlap between the positions currently held by Iran and the Trump administration. Because of that gap, he said a clear agreement may be difficult to reach.

Goldenberg suggested both countries will likely face internal and international pressure to avoid returning to open conflict. As a result, he believes the most probable outcome is an extended period of tension without direct fighting.

Robert Malley, who served as the special envoy for Iran during the Biden administration, said the situation around the Strait of Hormuz has become more complicated following recent U.S. military action. He noted that while many longstanding issues were already in play, new challenges have now been added to the diplomatic landscape.

Vice President JD Vance is traveling to Islamabad for the discussions, and reports from the Associated Press indicate that Iran’s delegation has already arrived in Pakistan.

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