Get Used to One New Reality: Rising Gas Prices
Expect gas prices to keep rising for the near future. (AP Photo/Michael Probst)
Drivers who keep an eye on fuel costs may notice a sharp jump at the pump. The average price of gasoline in the United States climbed 11 cents overnight, reaching $3.11 per gallon, according to new data from the American Automobile Association (AAA) cited by the Associated Press.
The increase is largely tied to escalating conflict in the Middle East, which has thrown the global oil market into what analysts describe as a worst-case scenario. Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route through which a large share of the world’s oil normally travels. At the same time, Iran has continued retaliatory strikes targeting energy facilities in neighboring countries.
As tensions rise, oil prices are reacting quickly. Brent crude oil—the international benchmark—jumped roughly 9% Tuesday morning to about $81 per barrel. How high prices climb from here, and how much drivers end up paying for gasoline, will likely depend on how the conflict develops.
Best-case scenario:
If fighting ends quickly, within about a week, analysts say oil prices could fall back to the $60–$70 per barrel range. In the short term, however, gasoline prices are still expected to rise. A petroleum analyst at GasBuddy told CNBC that drivers could see prices increase by roughly 30 cents this week.
If the conflict drags on:
Should the war continue for more than three weeks, oil prices could climb to around $120 per barrel—levels not seen since the early days of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. During that period, the national average for gasoline eventually surged past $5 per gallon. The The Washington Post reports that prices at the pump could reach at least $4 per gallon if oil remains above $100.
Worst-case scenario:
If Iran manages to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed for an extended time—possibly through tactics such as sea mines or attacks on tankers—some analysts warn that oil could spike as high as $200 per barrel. In that case, gasoline prices would likely rise to new record levels.
About Post Author
