Americans think World War III is likely within next 5 years

A striking new poll suggests many Americans fear a major global conflict may be on the horizon.

Nearly half of U.S. respondents (46%) say a new world war is “likely” or “very likely” by 2031, compared with 31% who see such fears as unfounded, according to a survey by Politico Europe. That share has risen 8 points since March 2025, when 38% of Americans expressed similar concern.

Across five Western nations — the United States, Canada, United Kingdom, France and Germany — Germans stood out as the least worried about imminent war. Only 25% in Germany said they were preparing measures such as bomb shelters, while 40% considered a world war unlikely in the next five years.

In contrast, concern climbed across the other four countries since March. The largest increase appeared in the United Kingdom, where 43% now see global war as likely or very likely, up from 30%.

Americans were also the most likely to expect their own country to be directly involved in a major conflict within five years, as tensions with Iran over its nuclear program continue to strain relations in the Middle East.

Canadian respondents, meanwhile, most often identified the United States as the country that could trigger a conflict involving Canada, amid ongoing disputes between the neighbors over trade and tariffs. In Europe, respondents overwhelmingly pointed to Russia as the primary threat, citing President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and perceived ambitions beyond it, nearly four years after the war began.

Politico surveyed more than 2,000 people in each country from Feb. 6 to 9.