Trump Leads, Putin Retreats: Canceled Summit Exposes Russia’s Decline
When Vladimir Putin first announced plans for a “Russia–Arab World” summit, the Kremlin envisioned a high-profile gathering of regional leaders in Moscow to discuss security and energy partnerships, showcasing Russia’s lasting influence in the Middle East.
Announced in April and months in the making, the summit had been set for Wednesday — intended to demonstrate Moscow’s continued global relevance despite Western sanctions.
But the event was abruptly postponed after only a few leaders, including Syria’s President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit, confirmed attendance.
Instead, the world’s focus shifted to Egypt on Monday, where global leaders assembled for a Gaza peace summit in Sharm el-Sheikh. There, President Donald Trump joined Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to welcome heads of state from across the Middle East and Europe. The event culminated in the signing of a long-awaited Gaza treaty, with leaders lining up to be photographed beside the U.S. president.
While Russia was never expected to play a central role in the Gaza peace process, its absence in Egypt underscored a growing reality Moscow is reluctant to acknowledge: as the war in Ukraine drags on, Russia’s influence in the Middle East — once seen as a counterbalance to Western power — has diminished.
“Russia’s diplomatic role in the Middle East has declined as a result of the Ukraine war,” said Hanna Notte, a Berlin-based expert on Russian foreign policy. “When it comes to the big developments, the major players in the region don’t look toward Moscow anymore.”
The Sharm el-Sheikh summit also highlighted a shifting dynamic, as many regional leaders prioritize strengthening relations with President Trump amid growing frustration in Washington over Putin’s refusal to end the Ukraine conflict.
For nearly a decade, the Middle East was central to Putin’s campaign to restore Russia’s global clout. Moscow’s 2015 military intervention in Syria saved Bashar al-Assad’s government, secured permanent military bases on the Mediterranean, and reasserted Russia as a force beyond its borders.
But the full-scale invasion of Ukraine forced Russia to divert vast military, economic, and diplomatic resources, leaving Assad’s regime vulnerable and limiting Moscow’s regional leverage. Meanwhile, Russia’s key ally Iran has seen its infrastructure repeatedly struck by Israel.
Despite years of cultivating ties with the Palestinian Authority and hosting Hamas delegations in Moscow, Russia played no role in the negotiations that brought about the Gaza ceasefire. By aligning more closely with Iran and the Palestinians, Putin has strained once-strong ties with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently said Israel had transferred a Patriot missile system to Kyiv.
Publicly, Russian officials have praised President Trump’s efforts to end the Gaza war, part of a broader effort to rebuild goodwill with Washington.
Putin said last Friday that he postponed the Russia–Arab World summit “so as not to interfere” with Trump’s initiative, calling the U.S.-led push to end the war “a truly historic event” if successful.
Still, signs of frustration have emerged within Russia’s leadership. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow “would not refuse to take part in Middle East settlement efforts if invited” but would not “impose its services.”
Others were more openly critical. Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chair of Russia’s Security Council, dismissed the Gaza deal as symbolic, saying it would not bring lasting peace. “Until a full-fledged Palestinian state is established in line with UN resolutions, nothing will change,” he said.
Russia’s retreat from global influence extends beyond the Middle East. Across Central Asia and the Caucasus, countries once seen as reliable allies — including Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Azerbaijan — are steadily moving out of Moscow’s orbit.
In August, President Trump hosted the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan at the White House, where he brokered a peace deal granting the U.S. development rights to the new “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” — a corridor linking Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave via Armenia.
Both Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev were present in Egypt for the Gaza summit this week.
Putin is expected to reschedule the Russia–Arab World summit for November. Analysts say it could help Moscow project an image of continued relevance but won’t reverse its fading influence.
“A summit like this helps Russia show it isn’t isolated outside the West,” said Notte. “It matters symbolically for Moscow — but it doesn’t restore its status as a major player in the region.”
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