Obama endorses Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia: What governor polls show

Former President Barack Obama’s endorsement of Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms in the Georgia gubernatorial race follows weeks of tightening polls in the battleground state.

The Georgia governor’s race is expected to be among the closest of the midterms, and polls point to a competitive contest between Bottoms and Republican health care executive Rick Jackson, who has been endorsed by President Donald Trump. Georgia has emerged as the newest swing state, having backed Trump in 2024 and former President Joe Biden in 2020.

Democrats are hopeful the national environment will boost their chances in close states like Georgia. Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms when the president is unpopular, and Trump’s approval has fallen, fueling a favorable national environment for the out-party.

But Republicans believe they can hold the seat with a stronger candidate, and the state has backed Republicans in past gubernatorial races despite its leftward trend at the federal level.

Newsweek reached out to Bottoms’ campaign via email and Jackson’s campaign via press contact form for comment.

Obama Endorses Keisha Lance Bottoms

Bottoms’ campaign rolled out Obama’s endorsement in a video posted to social media on Thursday.

“Georgia, I hope you’ll support my friend Keisha Lance Bottoms for governor,” Obama said. “As a former judge, council member, and mayor, Keisha believes that public service is about putting you first. She believes in young people, delivered historic pay raises for police officers and firefighters, and balanced the budget without raising taxes.”

He said there is “a lot at stake” in the Georgia election.

Democrats will hope the endorsement gives Bottoms a boost as she faces a tightening race against Jackson, despite national momentum favoring Democrats. A flurry of recent polls show Jackson holding a narrow lead, and the Republican also has a major financial advantage over Bottoms.

The race is “very competitive,” Kerin Swint, a political scientist at Kennesaw State University, told Newsweek on Thursday.

“Former President Obama will provide a publicity boost, but will not change any votes. His visit is primarily to boost Democratic turnout and provide some excitement,” he said.

Obama has been weighing in on competitive races for Democrats ahead of the midterms. He has also endorsed Maine Democratic Senate candidate Troy Jackson, Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico, gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa and Iowa Democratic Senate candidate Josh Turek.

Georgia Governor Race: What Polls Show

Bottoms trails in a flurry of recent polls from the Peach State.

A Big Data poll gave Jackson a slight lead over Bottoms, 47.6 percent to 45.7 percent among 712 registered voters and 48.8 percent to 46.7 percent among 678 likely voters. It was conducted from September 21 to 23, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Jackson also led by 2 points in an InsiderAdvantage poll, 48 percent to 46 percent. It surveyed 1,200 likely voters from September 22 to 23.

Meanwhile, he also held a 2-point lead in a YouGov poll, with 46 percent support compared to 44 percent backing Bottoms. The poll surveyed 3,299 likely voters from September 15 to 18, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.

The polls found that there is likely to be some ticket splitting in Georgia this year. Although Jackson held a slight lead in the governor’s race, Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff held a more substantial lead over Republican Representative Mike Collins in his reelection bid.

Ossoff led by 11 points in the Big Data Poll, 8 points in the InsiderAdvantage poll, and 10 points in the YouGov survey.

Swint said that he views Jackson as the favorite to win in November.

“It’s not only his money advantage, but the Republicans have a good turnout machine, and Lance Bottoms’ record as Atlanta mayor is not remembered fondly,” he said. “There is a reason she did not run for a second term as mayor. Also, Atlanta mayors, even successful ones, do not have a good record of running statewide in Georgia.”

Bottoms Faces Spending Gap in Georgia Governor’s Race

Ad spending has become a central challenge for the Bottoms campaign. Jackson, who is estimated by Forbes to be worth at least $1 billion, has spent $100 million of his own fortune on the race, giving his campaign significant funds to run ads across the state. Democrats have struggled to keep up.

From June 9 through September, Republicans spent about $66 million on the race, compared with $9.8 million by Democrats, NBC News reported, citing an AdImpact analysis of ad bookings. Republicans also had more than $32 million reserved ahead of Election Day, compared to Democrats’ $287,000, according to the report.

Georgia’s Shift From Red to Purple

Georgia has shifted from a reliably Republican state to a true battleground over the past two decades.

The shift was powered by rapid growth and demographic change in Atlanta and its suburbs. In fact, Atlanta’s suburbs were among the only places in the country to become more Democratic from 2020 to 2024, despite major rightward shifts elsewhere in the nation—a sign of how quickly these areas are trending leftward.

Democrats hope those trends continue and accelerate in 2026 as they keep building progress in Georgia.

Trump carried Georgia by about 2.2 points in the 2024 presidential election, after Biden won the state by roughly 0.2 points in 2020. Trump won Georgia by about 5 points in 2016, while Mitt Romney won it by roughly 8 points in 2012 and John McCain by about 5 points in 2008.

Still, Republicans have been on a decades-long winning streak in gubernatorial races that Democrats are hoping to break this year. Democrats have not won a Georgia gubernatorial race since 1998, when Democrat Roy Barnes carried the state. He lost reelection four years later, in 2002.

Presidential Implications

The race could have important implications for the 2028 presidential race. Both of Georgia’s Democratic senators, Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, have been floated as potential presidential candidates, but a Republican governor appointing their replacement could complicate their bids.

Ossoff told CNN, “I am not running for president in 2028; I have no interest in running for president in 2028.”

He said he is “laser-focused” on winning reelection in Georgia this year.

Warnock told WMUR he is “sharply focused on the midterms” while he was campaigning with Democrat Chris Pappas in New Hampshire this week.

What Do Prediction Markets Show?

Jackson was narrowly favored in prediction markets, having a 55 percent chance on Kalshi and a 51 percent chance on Polymarket as of Thursday morning.

That marks a shift from one month earlier, when Bottoms had a 56 percent chance on Kalshi and a 56 percent chance on Polymarket.

Prediction markets let traders buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real-money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always predict the future accurately.

What Happens Next

The Georgia gubernatorial race is expected to remain competitive. Forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as a toss-up.

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