Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is emerging as a serious contender for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, with new polling showing the New York progressive leading the field in New Hampshire.

Ocasio-Cortez received 22% support among likely Democratic primary voters in a University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll released July 22. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg followed at 21%, placing the two within the poll’s margin of error but well ahead of the remaining prospective candidates.

Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly received 9%, California Gov. Gavin Newsom had 8% and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders drew 6%. Former Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic Party’s 2024 presidential nominee, finished with only 5%.

The most significant development may be AOC’s movement since the previous survey. Her support increased seven percentage points from February, while Newsom and Harris both lost ground.

The survey was conducted July 15–20 among 1,458 New Hampshire residents, including 648 likely Democratic primary voters. The Democratic portion had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

The University of New Hampshire Survey Center found that Ocasio-Cortez drew especially strong backing from voters who described themselves as socialists or progressives. Buttigieg’s support was spread more evenly among progressives, liberals and moderates.

Although New Hampshire is no longer guaranteed to hold the Democratic Party’s first presidential contest, the state remains closely watched as an early indicator of candidate strength. Its voters have also been known to disrupt the plans of party leaders and establishment favorites.

The New Hampshire results arrived as Democratic insiders increasingly place Ocasio-Cortez near the top of the prospective field. In its latest 2028 Democratic power rankings, Axios placed Harris first and AOC second, describing the congresswoman as the natural political heir to Sanders and someone closely aligned with the party’s current activist energy.

Axios suggested that a Sanders endorsement could allow Ocasio-Cortez to raise an enormous amount of money from small-dollar contributors without relying heavily on traditional major donors.

Ocasio-Cortez has not announced a presidential campaign. She has also left open the possibility of challenging Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer, who faces reelection in New York in 2028. When recently questioned about her political future, she said her objective was to “change the country” without specifying which office she might seek.

Despite the New Hampshire result, it is far too early to describe AOC as the undisputed national frontrunner. Harris currently leads the RealClearPolling national average, followed by Newsom and Buttigieg, with Ocasio-Cortez further behind. Early presidential surveys are heavily influenced by name recognition, and the first votes will not be cast for more than a year.

Nevertheless, the New Hampshire poll establishes that Ocasio-Cortez belongs in the top tier of possible Democratic candidates. Her national following, fundraising power and support among younger and progressive voters could make her formidable in a crowded primary.

It also reveals the potential ideological battle awaiting Democrats. The party may ultimately choose between an unabashed progressive such as Ocasio-Cortez, an establishment figure such as Harris or Newsom, and a candidate presenting himself as more moderate and electable.

For now, however, the congresswoman once dismissed as merely the loudest member of “the Squad” is polling ahead of nearly every prominent Democrat in one of America’s most closely watched presidential-primary states.

AOC leads the University of New Hampshire poll | Axios 2028 Democratic rankings | National polling average

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