Insider Trading Suspected in Ceasefire Bets

A wave of newly created accounts on the prediction market Polymarket placed unusually precise wagers on whether the United States and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, earning large profits after the agreement was announced. The timing and accuracy of those bets have raised questions about how the traders were able to anticipate the outcome.

The wagers came shortly before President Trump revealed on Tuesday evening that a two-week ceasefire had been reached. In the hours leading up to the announcement, there were few public indications that such a deal was close. In fact, earlier that day the president had intensified his public warnings toward Iran. In a social media message, Trump said that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if Iran failed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by an 8 p.m. Eastern deadline.

Blockchain records from Polymarket, analyzed through the crypto analytics platform Dune, show that at least 50 wallets placed significant “Yes” bets on a ceasefire earlier Tuesday before Trump’s announcement around 6:30 p.m. Eastern on Truth Social. For many of these wallets, the bets were their very first activity on the platform.

One wallet created at about 10 a.m. Tuesday placed approximately $72,000 on the ceasefire outcome at an average price of 8.8 cents per share. On Polymarket, each share ranges from $0 to $1, representing the market’s estimate of the probability of an event occurring. After the ceasefire announcement, the trader closed the position and walked away with roughly $200,000 in profit. Another account that joined the platform on April 6 and wagered on the same event recorded gains of about $125,500.

A separate wallet, opened just 12 minutes before Trump’s announcement, purchased $31,908 worth of “Yes” shares at 33.7 cents. That position is estimated to have produced about $48,500 in profit. The higher share price at that point may have reflected reports that Pakistan’s government was urging Trump late Tuesday to extend his deadline by two weeks.

It is also possible that some traders believed Trump would ultimately pull back from his earlier threat, following a pattern critics say has appeared during his second term when forceful warnings were followed by reversals. While several traders appear to have earned large gains, not everyone has received payouts yet. Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as “disputed,” because Iran continued to impose limits on ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz and missile activity in the region persisted.

Public blockchain data does not reveal who owns or controls the wallets involved. Polymarket operates through proxy smart contract wallets, allowing users to create multiple accounts. Only the company itself has the internal data that could determine whether the accounts belonged to entirely new traders or to existing users opening additional wallets.

Rep. Blake Moore, a Republican lawmaker who has introduced legislation aimed at regulating prediction markets, said the trading activity appears suspicious. In a statement Wednesday, he said the pattern suggests the possibility of insiders acting on information before it became public. Moore warned that without clearer restrictions, government or military officials could potentially exploit advance knowledge for personal financial gain.

The recent betting activity resembles earlier incidents on Polymarket in which newly created accounts made large wagers shortly before major geopolitical developments. Similar trading clusters appeared before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and during previous military escalations involving Iran, producing large profits for those accounts.

These episodes have fueled ongoing concerns among lawmakers and the public that some traders may be using nonpublic information to make money in prediction markets. Bipartisan groups in Congress have proposed expanding insider-trading laws to explicitly include prediction markets. Even major platforms in the sector, including Kalshi and Polymarket, have acknowledged the need to strengthen rules around insider trading.

Suspicious betting patterns also appeared during wagers on a potential ceasefire last month, although those trades ultimately did not result in profits.

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