Swalwell leads wide-open California governor’s race
Posted for: MugsMalone
Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) is emerging as the frontrunner in California’s competitive Democratic primary to succeed term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), according to recent polling data.
The latest survey from Emerson College Polling and Inside California Politics shows Swalwell with 17 percent support among likely voters, a modest rise from December that puts him ahead in the crowded field.
Former Fox News host Steve Hilton, running as a Republican, is in second place at 13 percent, down from 17 percent in February.
California’s top-two primary system ensures that the two candidates with the most votes, regardless of party, advance to the general election.
Other notable contenders include Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and billionaire Tom Steyer, who each have 11 percent support, while former Rep. Katie Porter (D) polls at 8 percent. Despite these numbers, one-quarter of likely voters remain undecided with the June primary less than two months away.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, highlighted that Swalwell’s backing among Democratic voters has increased from 23 percent to 27 percent, while Steyer’s support in the same group rose from 12 percent to 16 percent. Among independent voters, 39 percent are undecided.
The combination of multiple candidates and California’s nonpartisan system could create a rare opportunity for Republicans in the traditionally Democratic state. Former Vice President Kamala Harris opted not to run, a move many expected would have consolidated Democratic support. Porter, once seen as a potential front-runner, experienced a decline in popularity after viral videos sparked controversy over her behavior.
Analysts warn that the lack of a clear Democratic front-runner could split the party’s vote and allow two Republicans to advance to the general election. California Democratic data strategist Paul Mitchell modeled thousands of possible outcomes based on polling and betting market trends. While most scenarios show a Democrat facing a Republican in November, about 25 percent of the simulations result in two Republicans as the top vote-getters.
The last Republican to hold the governor’s office in California was Arnold Schwarzenegger (R), who won reelection in 2006. The state has supported Democratic presidential candidates in every election since 1992.
The Emerson College/Inside California Politics survey was conducted March 7-9 among 1,000 likely California voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
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