A UAE navy vessel patrols next to cargo ships and oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Khor Fakkan, United Arab Emirates, Wednesday, March 11, 2026.   (AP Photo/Altaf Qadri)

A UAE navy vessel patrols next to cargo ships and oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Khor Fakkan, United Arab Emirates, Wednesday, March 11, 2026. (AP Photo/Altaf Qadri)

Oil markets surged sharply on Thursday despite a massive international effort aimed at easing supply concerns, raising doubts among traders about whether the plan will be enough to stabilize prices.

The price of crude jumped more than 8 percent during the day, sending the global benchmark Brent crude back to roughly $100 per barrel. The spike happened even after governments announced what is expected to be the largest coordinated emergency release of oil reserves ever organized through the International Energy Agency.

The sudden rise came only days after oil prices had nearly reached $120 per barrel earlier in the week. Some analysts say the volatility reflects deep uncertainty in the market as the conflict in the Middle East threatens key energy routes.

Iran issued a warning on Thursday that oil could climb as high as $200 per barrel if the war continues and disrupts supply further.

Members of the International Energy Agency, which includes 32 countries, have agreed to release about 400 million barrels of oil from their strategic reserves in an attempt to offset potential shortages. The United States alone plans to contribute about 172 million barrels to the effort.

Even with that historic release, some analysts believe the additional supply may only cover a fraction of the possible disruption. If fighting in the Middle East continues to interfere with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — a critical passageway that carries roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil supply — the reserve release might make up no more than a quarter of the lost output.

Another concern is how quickly the oil will reach the market. US officials say shipments could begin as soon as next week, but the full distribution may take up to 120 days. Industry specialists estimate it could take two to three months before the additional barrels significantly affect supply levels.

Because of those delays and the uncertainty surrounding the conflict, market strategists say traders remain highly anxious. Pavel Molchanov, an analyst at Raymond James, said the oil market still appears to be operating in “panic mode,” with investors preparing for the possibility that both the conflict and elevated oil prices could persist even after the fighting ends.

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