Khamenei’s Likely Successor Emerges

Iran’s influential clerical body appears to be moving toward a dynastic transition at the top. Three Iranian officials told the New York Times that Mojtaba Khamenei, the 56-year-old son of slain supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has emerged as the leading contender to succeed his father, following meetings of the Assembly of Experts on Tuesday. An official announcement could come as soon as Wednesday, though some clerics reportedly fear that naming him now could make him a more prominent target for the US and Israel.

CNN reported over the weekend that “father-to-son succession is frowned upon in the Shiite Muslim clerical establishment, especially in a revolutionary Iran born out of the overthrow of a widely reviled monarchy.”

Despite this, Mojtaba—long influential but rarely visible—is closely aligned with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which sources say strongly supports him as a stable choice during times of crisis. Analysts suggest that his selection would indicate growing influence by Iran’s most hard-line security forces, though a Tehran-based commentator predicts a public backlash, particularly from those angered by the regime’s deadly crackdown on protesters.

Two other potential successors, cleric Alireza Arafi and Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of revolution founder Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, are considered relative moderates. One political ally has suggested Mojtaba could emerge as a reform-minded leader, drawing comparisons to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, while others—including President Trump—warn that Iran could simply end up with a leader as uncompromising as the last.

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