Exclusive-Mexico weighs stopping oil shipments to Cuba amid concerns of Trump retaliation, sources say

MEXICO CITY — In what can only be described as “How Not to Annoy the Superpower Next Door 101,” Mexico is now nervously reconsidering whether it should keep sending oil to Cuba, after suddenly realizing that poking the United States with a petroleum stick might have consequences.

According to officials who suddenly value anonymity more than ever, President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration is debating whether continuing to prop up Cuba’s lights might provoke President Donald Trump — who, in case anyone forgot, has very loudly declared that Cuba is “ready to fall” and that “THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA – ZERO!” (Caps included for emphasis, apparently.)

The timing is unfortunate. Venezuela’s oil shipments to Cuba have been shut down after U.S. tanker blockades and the dramatic capture of Nicolás Maduro, leaving Mexico as the island’s last remaining gas station. So congratulations, Mexico — you’re now Cuba’s emergency generator and Washington’s favorite new suspect.

Publicly, Sheinbaum insists everything is fine. The oil shipments are “long-term contracts” and “international aid,” which is diplomatic code for: Please don’t sanction us, we’re just being nice.

Privately, however, her cabinet is reportedly staring at maps, trade agreements, and drone footage, wondering if sending fuel to Havana is worth angering a president who has recently floated invading Mexico to fight cartels.

Meanwhile, Mexico is delicately trying to renegotiate the USMCA trade deal, convince Washington it’s fighting drug cartels hard enough, and politely explain that U.S. troops invading Mexico would be, you know, a bad look.

But Trump, never one for subtlety, has already warned that Cuba is done, Venezuela is done, and Mexico might want to get with the program before it joins the list. During a recent phone call, he casually asked about the oil shipments and the thousands of Cuban doctors in Mexico — because nothing says “friendly diplomacy” like auditing your neighbor’s humanitarian aid.

Adding to the tension, U.S. Navy surveillance drones have been spotted hovering suspiciously over tanker routes in the Gulf of Mexico, presumably just sightseeing.

Inside the Mexican government, some officials worry that cutting Cuba off completely might cause the island to collapse into a humanitarian disaster, triggering mass migration toward Mexico — because what Mexico really needs right now is another crisis.

So the options on the table are simple:
• Stop sending oil
• Send less oil
• Keep sending oil and hope for the best

No pressure.

Officially, Mexico says it stands in “solidarity with the people of Cuba.” Unofficially, it appears to be standing in a geopolitical minefield, wondering which step will make it explode.

As for Cuba, it remains heavily dependent on imported fuel, economically desperate, and stubbornly resilient after decades of sanctions. And now, thanks to Venezuela dropping out, Mexico holds the last gas can.

Between January and September alone, Mexico shipped about $400 million worth of oil and fuel to Cuba — which is apparently just enough to light Havana and irritate Washington at the same time.

In summary:
Mexico wants to help Cuba.
Trump wants Cuba starved.
Drones are watching.
Sanctions are looming.
And everyone is pretending this is just normal foreign policy.

Stay tuned.