Chinese Are Giving Birth Like It’s 1738
Residents bring their children to play in a compound near a commercial office building in Beijing on May 10, 2021. (AP Photo/Andy Wong)
China’s leaders continue to encourage citizens to have more children, but new data show the country’s demographic decline is accelerating. Official figures released Monday indicate that China recorded just 7.92 million births in 2025, a drop of 17% from the 9.54 million births the previous year. That translates to a birthrate of 5.63 per 1,000 people—the lowest level since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, according to the New York Times.
One demographer noted that the number of births is now comparable to levels seen in 1738, when China’s total population was about 150 million, the Guardian reported. At the same time, deaths rose to 11.31 million, or 8.04 per 1,000 people, the highest death rate since 1968. This marked the fourth straight year in which deaths exceeded births. The grim demographic data were released alongside more optimistic economic news, including a reported 5% growth rate last year.
In response to the falling birthrate, Beijing has rolled out a wide range of incentives and messaging campaigns, offering cash payments, housing subsidies, and calls to promote a “new type of marriage and childbearing culture.” Some local governments have taken more intrusive steps, including monitoring women’s menstrual cycles and discouraging abortions that are not medically necessary. On January 1, authorities imposed a 13% value-added tax on condoms and contraceptive drugs. While the government has not officially linked the tax to population policy, many see it as another attempt to encourage childbirth.
The move has been met with skepticism, particularly among young adults. “I’ll still use them,” said Jonathan Zhu, 28, who cited financial pressure as his main reason for delaying having children. Online reactions to the tax were largely sarcastic, and many critical posts were later removed from social media platforms.
Experts say these policies are unlikely to reverse the trend. Demographers warn that China has already entered a period of long-term population decline, with fertility rates so low that even aggressive government intervention is unlikely to restore previous levels. Young people face a slowing economy, high housing costs, limited social safety nets, and persistent youth unemployment—factors that make starting a family financially risky. Marriage itself is also becoming less common.
The population decline is unfolding faster than Chinese officials once expected, placing increasing strain on pension and healthcare systems as the population ages. By 2035, the number of people aged 60 and older is projected to reach 400 million, even as the number of working-age contributors to public funds continues to shrink.
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