US Turkey Population Hits a 40-Year Low
Larry Doll interacts with turkeys on his farm Thursday, Nov. 20, 2025, in Sylvan Township, Mich. (AP Photo/Mike Householder)
Store promotions aside, the gobblers will cost you more this year
Larry Doll raises chickens, turkeys, and ducks on a small farm west of Detroit, and this Thanksgiving season, he’s been lucky: none of his birds have caught avian flu, even as the virus has killed more than 2 million turkeys across the U.S. in the past three months. He has also avoided avian metapneumovirus, a disease that can reduce egg production in turkeys, reports the AP.
“I try to keep the operation as clean as possible, and not bringing other animals in from other farms helps mitigate that risk as well,” Doll said. Still, he has felt the effects of the wider outbreak. The national turkey flock has dropped to its lowest level in 40 years, limiting availability at hatcheries. Doll plans to order another 100 chicks, but they won’t arrive until July. “If you don’t get your order in early, you’re not going to get it,” he said.
The USDA expects the smaller turkey population to push wholesale prices up 44% this year. Retailers are trying to ease the burden on Thanksgiving shoppers, with some offering discounted—or even free—turkeys. However, the rest of the holiday meal may also be more expensive. Tariffs on imported steel, for instance, have driven up the cost of canned goods. As of Nov. 17, a basket of 11 common Thanksgiving staples—including a 10-pound frozen turkey, 10 Russet potatoes, a box of stuffing, and cans of corn, green beans, and cranberry sauce—cost $58.81, a 4.1% increase over last year, according to market research firm Datasembly. Other estimates suggest prices could be stable or even slightly lower in some areas.
Frozen hens weighing 8 to 16 pounds were averaging $1.77 per pound in the second week of November, up 81% from last year, said Mark Jordan, executive director of Leap Market Analytics. Higher turkey prices are also linked to rising consumer demand for poultry as the cost of other meats climbs. Beef prices, for example, were up 14% in September compared with last year. “For a big chunk of the population, they look at steak cuts and say, ‘I can’t or I don’t want to pay $30 a pound,’” Jordan explained.
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