Islamist Leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan Warns Turkey Is Facing a Fertility ‘Disaster’

Posted For: Rotorblade

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned on Thursday that the country is approaching a demographic “disaster” as its birth rate continues to fall well below the replacement level. Turkey’s fertility rate has remained under replacement for nearly a decade despite Erdogan’s long-standing efforts to encourage larger families.

Speaking at the “Family and Culture-Arts Symposium” in Ankara, Erdogan said the latest figures from the Turkish Statistical Institute show a fertility rate of 1.48 children per woman in 2024—far under the 2.1 needed to sustain population levels. Turkey’s rate remains higher than those of countries with the world’s most severe demographic declines, such as South Korea (0.79) and Japan (1.20), but still trails the United States’ 1.60.

“No one who cares about the future of this country can ignore this,” Erdogan said, noting that declining birth rates are evident among both employed and unemployed women. He argued that women, especially in cities, are “getting lonelier” and lacking sufficient support from spouses, urging fathers to take a more active role in family life.

Erdogan’s tone contrasts sharply with earlier years, when he condemned birth control as “treason” and framed large families as a religious duty. Turkey’s fertility rate was still above replacement in 2014, but fell below that threshold in 2017, a year after Erdogan’s sweeping crackdown on political opponents following the failed 2016 coup attempt.

During the symposium, Erdogan also criticized “gender neutrality” and “LGBT movements,” framing them as threats to Turkish culture and part of what he called “cultural imperialism.” State media reported that he pledged to resist such influences.

Turkey’s fertility decline has been steady for two decades. The rate stood at 2.38 in 2001 and has fallen nearly every year since 2014, hitting 1.51 in 2023. The trend varies significantly by region: Şanlıurfa posted the nation’s highest fertility rate at 3.28, while college graduates were found to have the lowest.

Turkish Minister of Family and Social Services Mahinur Ozdemir Goktas recently told Parliament that half of Turkish households are childless, calling the situation unsustainable and “a matter of our country’s survival.”

In early 2025, Erdogan launched a “Year of the Family” initiative that includes financial incentives for marriage and for families with multiple children. Its impact remains uncertain as full-year statistics have not yet been released.

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