Russia is helping prepare China to attack Taiwan, documents suggest
Leaked Russian documents suggest Moscow is selling military equipment and know-how to China that could help Beijing develop airborne capabilities useful for an invasion of Taiwan, a U.K. defense research institute says.
The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) based its analysis on roughly 800 pages of material — contracts, equipment lists and meeting notes — released by the hacktivist group Black Moon. RUSI shared some of the documents with The Associated Press and said they appear authentic, while acknowledging parts may have been omitted or altered. The AP has not independently verified the files.
The documents include references to meetings between Chinese and Russian delegations, delivery and payment timelines and technical work on systems such as high-altitude parachute rigs and amphibious assault vehicles. While they indicate Russia has begun developing and preparing equipment for delivery, the files do not show direct evidence that China has paid for or already received the materiel.
RUSI analysts say the gear and training described in the documents would close gaps in China’s airborne capabilities and could accelerate Beijing’s ability to conduct mass parachute operations. Under President Xi Jinping, China has pushed a sweeping modernization of its armed forces with the stated aim of building a “world-class” military by 2050. U.S. officials have warned that Chinese forces could be prepared for an invasion of Taiwan by as early as 2027.
Although the documents do not mention Taiwan by name, RUSI’s assessment argues the systems — especially advanced high-altitude parachute technology and training in airborne command-and-control — would be directly relevant to mounting an airborne assault on an island like Taiwan.
“The Chinese school of airborne landing is very young,” the report’s authors write, and Russian combat experience could shorten China’s learning curve by a decade or more, according to analysts Oleksandr Danylyuk and Jack Watling.
The leaked files include a September 2024-dated document that recounts an initial 2021 agreement and specifies stages of technical analysis, software modification and manufacturing that the Russians say have been completed. The package reportedly offered to China would equip an airborne battalion and includes 37 light amphibious assault vehicles, 11 amphibious anti-tank self-propelled guns, 11 airborne armored personnel carriers, plus command and observation vehicles — listed at a combined cost of more than $210 million. Beijing reportedly requested the vehicles be fitted with Chinese communications gear and be compatible with Chinese ammunition.
One system singled out in the analysis is the Dalnolyot parachute system, designed for high-altitude airdrops of loads up to about 190 kilograms (419 pounds). Meeting minutes from March 8, 2024, cited in the files say Russia agreed to provide China with low-temperature performance data for the system and that China requested tests for drops from 8,000 meters (about 26,250 feet). RUSI notes that such high-altitude drops would allow gliding distances up to roughly 80 kilometers (50 miles), potentially enabling covert insertions of special forces or equipment from outside a target country’s airspace.
Analysts caution, however, that Russia’s own parachute forces have suffered setbacks. Early in Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, airborne operations aimed at seizing strategic airfields failed to establish the air bridge Moscow had planned, with helicopters shot down and assaults repelled.
RUSI argues Moscow’s motive is twofold: to develop as a military supplier to China and to generate revenue to support its war in Ukraine. Danylyuk also suggested Russia may hope the relationship draws Beijing into a confrontation with Washington over Taiwan, thereby distracting U.S. attention from Ukraine.
Chinese and Taiwanese defense and foreign ministries, and the Kremlin, did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Independent experts cited by the report say the equipment is only part of a wider picture. Song Zhongping, a Beijing military commentator, observed that China has superior equipment in many areas but lacks Russia’s combat experience. Wen-Ti Sung of the Atlantic Council said airborne insertions would likely support logistics and force buildup rather than serve as the primary means of invasion; Beijing, he said, would also use any acquired technology to reverse-engineer capabilities for reconnaissance and surveillance — tools central to modern warfare.
RUSI concludes that the main operational challenge for any island invasion remains suppressing air defenses and delivering sufficient forces and equipment to establish a decisive lodgement before defenders can mobilize. The report warns that one plausible tactic would be to airdrop armored vehicles into open areas such as golf courses near ports and airfields to clear routes for follow-on landings.
About Post Author
