Expert says, Target practice Russian drone incursion over Poland was ‘deliberate’ test The incident gave Moscow an insight into how Warsaw operates
Polish soldiers clear up the debris from one of the downed drones that hit a home in Wyryki. AP
A recent incursion of Russian drones into Polish airspace was likely a calculated move to test NATO’s defense capabilities and send a warning to the West about continued support for Ukraine, according to a leading analyst.
Despite Moscow’s denial of any intentional violation, the scale of the incident points to a coordinated Russian operation, said Christina Harward, an analyst with the Institute for the Study of War.
“Given the number of drones that entered Polish airspace overnight, this appears to have been a deliberate act,” Harward told The Post. “While we’ve seen limited drone and missile activity near NATO territory during the war, this is unprecedented in terms of scale.”
Polish and NATO officials reported that at least 19 projectiles were detected entering Polish airspace late Tuesday into Wednesday. Fighter jets were scrambled in response, and several drones were shot down. While most fell near the Ukrainian border, at least two unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) penetrated more than 100 miles into Polish territory.
Harward said the operation likely served as a way for Moscow to observe how Poland — and by extension, NATO — would respond to an immediate security threat.
“Russia was assessing defensive readiness, reaction times, command coordination, and interoperability among NATO forces,” she explained.
European leaders echoed this assessment. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas and German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius both condemned the incident as a strategic provocation aimed at probing the West’s response.
Beyond testing military defenses, Harward warned that the incursion also has a psychological component. Russia may seek to stoke fear among Polish citizens in hopes of pressuring Warsaw to scale back its support for Ukraine.
“Russia wants to create fear — to make Poles question whether supporting Ukraine is worth the risk,” she said. “This incursion wasn’t just about reconnaissance. It’s also about influencing political will in Europe.”
The incident gave Moscow an insight into not only how Warsaw operates, but how NATO might react in the face of an immediate attack on one of its member states, Harward said.
In response to the drone violations, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on NATO allies to strengthen their air defense systems and prepare for potential future escalations. He also reaffirmed Ukraine’s readiness to support its partners in facing down further Russian aggression.
Ukraine, Zelensky noted, has dealt with thousands of Russian drone attacks over the past three years and stands ready to share its experience and capabilities with its allies.
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