It Doesn’t Look Good for North America’s Reindeer
Reindeer herds across the Arctic are in steep decline, and scientists are now warning that their numbers could plummet by up to 80% before the century ends. A new study, led by researchers from the University of Adelaide and the University of Copenhagen, highlights North American caribou—the region’s wild reindeer—as particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.
Globally, around 9 million reindeer remain, including domesticated animals. However, North America’s wild caribou populations, estimated at 3.5 million, are among those most at risk, according to CBS News.
The study, published Wednesday in Science Advances, reveals that reindeer numbers have already dropped by nearly two-thirds over the past 30 years. To trace population trends, researchers used a combination of ancient DNA, fossils, and computer simulations, reconstructing a 21,000-year history of reindeer. They found that past periods of rapid warming were closely tied to sharp population declines—though the losses expected in the near future could be even more severe.
Lead author Damien Fordham, an ecologist at the University of Adelaide, stressed that only aggressive cuts in greenhouse gas emissions and stronger conservation policies can prevent a large-scale collapse of reindeer populations.
The decline poses broader ecological threats as well. Reindeer play a crucial role in maintaining biodiversity on the tundra and help regulate the Arctic’s carbon balance. Without them, scientists warn, plant diversity could suffer and the soil’s ability to store carbon could weaken—potentially speeding up the pace of climate change.
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