Opinion | Mexico Flirts With Dictatorship

Some of the world’s most notorious dictatorships were born during violent social upheaval, like Cuba in 1959 or Iran in 1979. But many others became police states when elected leaders used their popularity to demolish the rights of political minorities and eliminate institutional checks designed to limit executive power. Venezuela, Bolivia and Nicaragua are in this category.

Knowing this history, Mexicans who want to live in a pluralistic and free republic are on edge about September.

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s Morena party candidate, Claudia Sheinbaum, won the presidential election on June 2. Morena also won majorities in both chambers of Congress. But while the new legislators will take their oath of office on Sept. 1, Ms. Sheinbaum won’t be sworn in until Oct. 1.

This may give Mr. López Obrador, over the course of 30 days, power that he hasn’t enjoyed thus far in his presidency. If the National Electoral Institute rules on Aug. 23 that Morena and its allies won a supermajority in the lower house, the electoral tribunal upholds that ruling, and the president can “negotiate” the few votes he’s short of a Morena supermajority in the Senate, he plans to pass a set of radical constitutional amendments.

How radical? Let’s put it this way: If AMLO, as the president is known, relies on the hard-left Ms. Sheinbaum to tackle them once in office, they may not get done according to his plan. She wants to succeed, and annihilating legal certainty and the separation of powers—as Mr. López Obrador’s reforms would do—may not be on her immediate to-do list.

AMLO, on the other hand, is term-limited and vengeful about how independent institutions stopped him from centralizing power. As he exits, he’s making one last try to stick it to the “neoliberals” who believe in the rule of law. His close intellectual ally, sociologist Armando Bartra, says the package of reforms is similar to constitutional changes Hugo Chávez promoted in Venezuela.

If he succeeds, Mexico will return to a one-party state, such as it was during the most repressive days of the 71-year rule of the Institutional Revolutionary Party—only worse. Things could get a whole lot uglier considering the power of Mexican cartels.

Mexico’s diversified manufacturing economy makes it very different from Venezuela. But it isn’t impervious to a power grab. Mr. López Obrador already has given the army brass key roles in operations and customs at ports and airports and in infrastructure projects, inviting corruption. He also granted the armed forces federal policing responsibility, effectively militarizing law enforcement.

Among the most pernicious of the president’s 20 proposed constitutional amendments is the overhaul of the judiciary. It would remove all 7,293 sitting jurists in the country: 11 Supreme Court justices and all circuit court, federal district and state judges.

To replace the Supreme Court, the Morena-controlled legislature and the executive branch would nominate a list of candidates. You don’t have to be a conspiracy nut to surmise that there will be a political litmus test to qualify. Or that academic credentials, writing for scholarly journals and judicial experience would be secondary considerations, at best. Lawyers and judges who view the job on the nation’s highest court as an obligation to uphold the law are unlikely to present themselves for consideration. AMLO says that any lawyer in the country can self-nominate for lower court vacancies.

Nominees from the Supreme Court on down would then be elected by popular vote. Most voters, having little knowledge of jurisprudence or the resources to study the qualifications of the many candidates on the ballot, will be hard-pressed to make informed decisions. Turnout is likely to be low and the vote controlled by single-issue groups or lobbyists, be they organized crime, government officials or even entrepreneurs. Mexico’s bench will be employed by special interests. An amendment to allow the government to jail citizens suspected of tax fraud would do away with due process.

Another of AMLO’s initiatives would get rid of the 200 seats in the lower house of Congress (out of 500) and the 64 seats in the Senate (out of 128) that are filled using proportional representation. That would silence minority parties, which currently have a voice because with at least one-third of votes, they can challenge the constitutionality of laws. There would be no more re-election, removing incentives for responsible stewardship.

The reforms would abolish the autonomy of the country’s election watchdog. It would be put under the executive, as would the government agencies that regulate competition in telecom, energy and the wider market. This would violate Mexico’s obligations under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement and scare away capital.

If the reforms go forward, a nation that relies on greater integration with the global economy will go backward. And with it, Mexican hopes of living in peace, freedom and prosperity.

Opinion | Mexico Flirts With Dictatorship (msn.com)