US’ Hormuz Blockade Threat Could Spark High-Stakes Clash
AP Photo/Altaf Qadri,
Tensions in the six-week conflict involving Iran are rising after President Trump announced plans to use the US Navy to restrict Iran’s access to the Strait of Hormuz, according to reporting by the Wall Street Journal. The move comes after peace negotiations between the United States and Iran in Pakistan broke down over disagreements surrounding Tehran’s nuclear program.
President Trump said the Navy will begin operations Monday at 10 a.m. Eastern time aimed at blocking Iran’s ability to control traffic through the narrow waterway. The plan includes inspecting ships that have paid Iran for passage and removing sea mines from the area. Trump warned that any Iranian forces that fire on US or commercial vessels would be “blown to hell.”
US Central Command said the naval operation will apply to vessels from all countries. However, ships traveling between ports that are not in Iran will still be allowed to pass through the strait. That approach represents a shift from Trump’s earlier suggestion of completely shutting down traffic through the passage.
While the Pentagon says the operation can be carried out, current and former officials told the Wall Street Journal that maintaining control of the strait will be far more difficult than initiating the blockade. Iran’s conventional navy has suffered major losses during the conflict, but the country’s Revolutionary Guard still operates numerous fast attack boats, drones, and naval mines that could threaten US forces or commercial shipping.
Retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery described the effort as “militarily manageable,” though he added that the United States will probably need help from allied nations to sustain the mission.
The conflict is already affecting the global economy. Iran had previously disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which has forced factories in parts of Asia to scale back production. Some fuel stations in the region have begun rationing gasoline, and several airports in Europe and Asia are reporting shortages of jet fuel.
Analysts estimate that roughly 13 million barrels of oil per day from the Persian Gulf—about 12 percent of global supply—has already been taken off the market. If Iran’s remaining exports are cut off as a result of the naval action, an additional 2 million barrels per day could disappear from global supply.
President Trump and his advisers say the naval operation is necessary to stop what they describe as Iranian “extortion” and to prevent Tehran from developing a nuclear weapon. The White House has said that multiple countries are expected to participate, although several European and Gulf governments have indicated they would want a broader ceasefire agreement and an international mandate before committing forces.
Despite the pressure, Iran still has options to respond. With increased revenue from recent oil sales, Tehran could target pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. It could also rely on allied groups to threaten other major shipping routes, including the Bab al-Mandeb near Yemen. Those possibilities raise the risk of a prolonged confrontation between Iran and a global economy already facing significant strain.
Experts speaking to Reuters warned that a blockade of the strait would effectively be considered an act of war and could provoke retaliation from Iran. They also said such a move is unlikely to reduce gasoline prices in the United States.
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