Even the Saudis Are Worried About High Oil Prices. Price could climb to $180 per barrel

Saudi officials are confronting a troubling possibility: oil prices soaring to $180 a barrel if the conflict involving Iran continues to restrict supply beyond April. Sources in the kingdom, the world’s leading oil exporter, say current forecasts indicate that Brent crude could surpass $150 by mid-April and potentially reach $165–$180 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and supply shortages worsen, according to the Wall Street Journal. Brent futures have already surged to roughly $119 this week following Iranian attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure, including sites in Saudi Arabia and Qatar. A climb above $146.08 would surpass the previous record set in 2008.

While higher oil prices would increase Saudi Arabia’s revenues, they carry the risk of slowing global demand. Consumers might cut back, industries could reduce output, and the likelihood of a worldwide recession may grow—developments that could harm long-term oil consumption and portray Riyadh as profiting from conflict. Analyst Umer Karim of the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies told the Journal, “Saudi Arabia generally does not favor rapid price surges, as these create instability in the market. Their goal is modest price increases while maintaining market share.”

Investors are increasingly buying options betting on Brent reaching $130–$150 next month, with some analysts suggesting $200 per barrel could be conceivable this year. In the United States, the average price of gasoline has climbed to $3.88 per gallon, a level that functions as a significant economic burden, potentially fueling inflation and slowing growth. Goldman Sachs analysts warned that Brent could remain above $100 per barrel through the end of next year if supply disruptions continue, CNN reports. In scenarios where oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz resumes next month, prices could fall closer to $70 per barrel by the end of 2026.

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