Coffee Might Be Getting a Lot Cheaper Soon

Cocoa prices have fallen about 70 percent since reaching their peak in May 2025, and some analysts believe the coffee market could follow a similar path. At the National Coffee Association convention in Tampa last week, several experts pointed out similarities between the two commodities. According to Reuters, arabica coffee futures surged because of poor weather and trade disruptions, echoing the conditions that pushed cocoa prices higher before their sharp decline.

Commodities strategist Carley Garner said she would not be surprised to see coffee prices drop significantly. She expects prices to fall to about $2 per pound by the end of the year, down from roughly $2.93 on Tuesday. Garner described coffee as “the new cocoa.” Another analyst, Digby Beatson-Hird, believes prices could fall even further, possibly reaching $1.80 per pound.

There are already signs that consumers are feeling the pressure of higher coffee costs. A National Coffee Association survey of 1,500 Americans found that 61 percent are cutting back on coffee spending by skipping café purchases, brewing more at home, or switching to cheaper brands. Overall coffee consumption, however, has remained steady. Roasters and traders have also noticed a shift away from higher-priced mild arabica beans toward less expensive robusta varieties.

Some analysts argue that coffee is unlikely to collapse in the same way cocoa did. They point to steady demand and the expectation that Brazilian growers, who are anticipating a strong harvest, will likely release their beans gradually rather than flooding the market all at once.

Coffee prices have nearly doubled since 2020. Food economist Mike van Massow told CTV News that grocery store prices could drop substantially if the underlying commodity price declines. However, since many coffee shops absorbed earlier price increases instead of passing them on to customers, menu prices at cafés are not expected to fall much.

Chocolate prices, meanwhile, have not dropped alongside the recent decline in cocoa prices. Analysts say this is partly due to tariffs and long-term supply contracts that lock in costs. Another factor is that companies are often slower to lower prices than to raise them. Market researcher Chris Costagli of NIQ noted that if customers continue paying higher prices, companies may see little incentive to reduce them.

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