He Bet the Government Couldn’t Spend Less, and Won
Plenty of Americans doubted whether Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency could actually reduce federal spending. One skeptical DC tax economist put his money where his mouth was.
In the Wall Street Journal, Richard Rubin profiles 37-year-old Alan Cole, who moved all $342,195.63 of his personal savings—excluding retirement accounts and home equity—into bets on the prediction market Kalshi. To win, federal spending in every quarter of 2025 only had to exceed Q4 2024 levels.
Cole reasoned that even if Musk reduced the federal workforce and cut government contracts, “he couldn’t meaningfully dent Social Security and Medicare benefits. And that left no plausible path for cutting overall federal spending.”
He was right. The official 2025 numbers, released on February 20, showed every quarter exceeding Cole’s benchmark by at least $66 billion. His all-in bet yielded a 37% gain—a $128,000 profit before taxes.
The full story also highlights his wife’s role in greenlighting the move, adding an interesting personal angle to this high-stakes gamble.
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