Gas Prices Could Go Above $3 Per Gallon Next Week Analyst Warns
Analysts say the price of oil and gas could increase amid attacks involving Iran, Israel and the United States. Getty Images
Topline:
Gas prices in the United States could climb above a national average of $3 per gallon as soon as next week following United States-led military strikes against Iran, according to an energy analyst. The increase could come quickly as oil markets respond to rising geopolitical tensions.
What’s Happening:
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said global crude oil prices may rise 5–10%, potentially pushing oil above $70 per barrel after closing Friday at around $65. If that increase holds, it could accelerate the typical seasonal rise in prices at the pump.
De Haan said the projected increase could move the U.S. national average for regular gasoline above $3 per gallon as early as Monday, marking the first time this year prices have reached that level. However, he noted that even with this jump, prices would likely remain well below the major spikes seen in 2022, when demand surged after the COVID-19 pandemic and concerns grew over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Reports indicate that dozens of oil tankers diverted from the Strait of Hormuz amid uncertainty over potential disruptions. Continued instability or shipping interruptions in the region could place even more upward pressure on oil prices.
In addition, any damage to Iran’s oil export infrastructure or broader escalation of the conflict could further impact global supply and contribute to higher fuel costs, De Haan said.
Analysts note that unlike the United States’ military action against Venezuela earlier this year — which had only a modest effect on energy markets — tensions involving Iran could have broader and longer-lasting consequences.
About 90% of Iran’s oil exports go to China, but experts warn that instability across the Middle East could ripple through global energy markets and ultimately raise costs for American consumers.
Crucial Quote:
“Iran is a larger oil producer than Venezuela and thus the consequences of a disruption could be larger,” said Samantha Gross, director of the Energy Security and Climate Initiative at the Brookings Institution. “Add in their strategic location on the world’s most important oil chokepoint and you have a situation that could have significant market impacts, not just in the U.S.”
Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters:
Roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to major global shipping routes. The uncertainty surrounding the waterway is considered one of the biggest risks to oil prices, as traders may pull back from markets if disruptions persist. Bob McNally, founder and president of Rapidan Energy, warned that a prolonged closure of the strait could potentially trigger a global recession.
Key Background:
Gas prices in the United States have been climbing since January due to seasonal factors and recently reached a national average of $2.98 per gallon. Prices often rise during warmer months as refineries transition to summer-blend gasoline, which is more expensive to produce but required to reduce harmful emissions.
During his recent State of the Union address, President Donald Trump said gas prices were below $2.30 in most states. However, according to AAA data at the time, no states were reporting averages below that level.
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