Western forces in Erbil relocate ahead of possible US strikes on Iran
French troops take part in a ceremony at the Taji military base, north of Baghdad, on 6 October 2025 at the start of a training session at the base for Iraqi forces as part of a bilateral agreement between the two countries (AFP)
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A military helicopter touched down at Erbil International Airport in Iraq’s Kurdistan region several days ago, underscoring growing security concerns as tensions between the United States and Iran intensify.
While Western troops are seldom visible on Erbil’s streets, the nearby air base remains heavily staffed, with military aircraft frequently operating overhead. Analysts warn the site could become a prime target if hostilities escalate.
Since 2018, Iran and allied militias have launched repeated drone, rocket, and ballistic missile attacks across the Kurdistan region, including strikes near Erbil’s airport. Last July, air defenses intercepted a suicide drone over the facility during a broader wave of attacks on regional oil infrastructure. On 21 January, another drone struck an Iranian Kurdish opposition group, killing one fighter.
“There are foreign forces here, including Americans, and the Kurdistan region has traditionally maintained good relations with Western countries,” Ziryan Rojhelati of the Rudaw Research Center told Middle East Eye. “Many people believe that if war breaks out between Iran and the United States or Israel, tensions would spread to Kurdistan.”
Recent U.S. deployments have reinforced that concern. Roughly 100 aerial refueling tankers, carrier strike groups, and fighter aircraft have moved into the region. U.S. President Donald Trump has indicated that military strikes remain possible if nuclear negotiations with Tehran—scheduled to resume Thursday in Geneva—collapse.
Diplomatic and military sources told Middle East Eye that several coalition countries participating in the U.S.-led mission in Iraq have already reduced or relocated forces from Erbil, anticipating potential Iranian retaliation.
“I think as you start seeing repositioning from Erbil, which is a likely counter-attack target, and the ordered departure of nonessential personnel from Beirut, the chances of a U.S. strike are going up,” said Michael Patrick Mulroy, a former senior Pentagon official for the Middle East. “A lot hinges on the meeting in Geneva.”
Coalition forces reposition
In a 19 February letter to the UN secretary-general, Iran’s ambassador warned that U.S. bases and assets across the region could be treated as legitimate targets if Iran is attacked.
Multiple sources confirmed that about half of coalition personnel previously stationed in Erbil have moved to other countries as a precaution. U.S. and Hungarian forces largely remain, but Norwegian and Swedish contingents—as well as some Italian and French troops—have departed. Only Norway and Germany have publicly acknowledged relocating personnel so far.
“Norway has about 60 soldiers in the Middle East carrying out various missions. Some have been relocated due to regional tensions, in coordination with coalition partners,” Norwegian military spokesperson Brynjar Stordal told Middle East Eye.
German officials said their troop reduction reflected the deteriorating security environment. The Dutch defense ministry said it was monitoring developments closely but did not confirm whether its personnel had withdrawn.
Andrew J. Tabler of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy said the moves were unsurprising. “It’s logical for coalition forces to move out as they believe they will be in the crosshairs of an Iranian retaliatory strike,” he said.
A growing target
According to Reuters, fewer than 2,000 coalition troops remain in Erbil after the alliance shifted forces from Baghdad and Ain al-Assad to the Kurdish region under a 2024 agreement to end its presence in federal Iraq by the end of 2025 and in Kurdistan by September 2026. Coalition headquarters were moved to Erbil and Kuwait, making the air base—co-located with a civilian airport—the last U.S. installation in Iraq and a more visible target.
“The Erbil base has a large target on it not only due to U.S. withdrawal from other Iraqi bases but also because attacking it offers Iran a way to signal the costs of cooperating with Washington,” said Nicholas Heras of the New Lines Institute.
The New York Times reported Sunday that President Trump is leaning toward authorizing strikes within days to pressure Iran into concessions.
“The United States is preparing for a potential conflict with Iran and will want to minimize personnel exposure,” Heras added. “At minimum, nonessential staff would likely be rotated out of a large, multi-agency base like Erbil in the event of war.”.
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