Murder Rate Hits 125-Year Low in Trump’s First Year Back in Office — Biggest Single-Year Drop Ever
Last year is on track to record the lowest national homicide rate in 125 years, according to a newly released analysis.
The Council on Criminal Justice, a nonpartisan think tank, estimates that the national homicide rate fell by 21 percent from 2024 to 2025, based on available data from U.S. cities. The decline occurred during President Donald Trump’s first year of his second term.
The organization said that when full nationwide data from jurisdictions of all sizes is released later this year by the FBI, homicides in 2025 could fall to roughly 4.0 per 100,000 residents. If confirmed, that would represent the lowest homicide rate ever recorded in law enforcement or public health data dating back to 1900, as well as the largest single-year percentage decline on record.
The New York Times reported that an analysis of data from 40 cities conducted by the Council on Criminal Justice showed broad crime reductions compared to 2019 levels, including 25 percent fewer homicides, 13 percent fewer shootings, and 29 percent fewer carjackings. While the FBI has not yet released complete national crime statistics for 2025, data published by cities and compiled by independent researchers already points to what the Times described as a “remarkable” turnaround. Over the past five years, cities have shifted from historic surges in violence to declines significant enough to draw national attention.
Blessed are the peacemakers, both at home and abroad. pic.twitter.com/1PSbeb7yd1
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) January 22, 2026
The report noted that crime spikes began in 2020 amid the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and, soon after, widespread protests related to police use-of-force incidents, both of which strained law enforcement capacity.
The Council on Criminal Justice also acknowledged that overall crime began declining in 2024, before President Trump took office, though the pace of the decrease accelerated afterward. The White House has pointed to the data as evidence of progress on one of Trump’s major campaign promises, “Make America Safe Again.”
In a statement, the White House said the decline reflects a broad improvement in public safety, citing not only the historic drop in murders but also reductions in rapes, robberies, aggravated assaults, shooting deaths—now at their lowest level since 2015—on-duty law enforcement officer deaths, traffic fatalities, and overdose deaths.
Trump’s team credited the results to a nationwide public safety strategy focused on supporting law enforcement, removing criminal illegal aliens, and restoring order in cities run by Democratic leadership. They argued that these efforts reversed policies they say previously contributed to rising crime and disorder.
ICYMI: Murder Rate Plunges to 125-Year Low as President Trump Restores Law and Orderhttps://t.co/9FVjG6B6fy
— Karoline Leavitt (@PressSec) January 22, 2026
The New York Times further reported that of the 35 cities included in the homicide analysis, all but eight recorded lower murder rates in 2025 than before the pandemic. Cities where homicide rates remained elevated included Milwaukee, at 42 percent above pre-pandemic levels; Austin, at 36 percent higher; and Minneapolis, at 30 percent higher.
Minneapolis has recently drawn attention amid a Department of Homeland Security push to remove criminal illegal aliens, an effort that has faced resistance from Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey.
Public perception of crime also appears to be improving. A Gallup survey conducted in October found that 49 percent of Americans viewed crime as an “extremely” or “very” serious problem, down from 63 percent the year before. Gallup said the current level of concern is the lowest recorded since at least 2018, during President Trump’s first term.
About Post Author
You must be logged in to post a comment.