ObamaCare Sign-Ups Fall 1.4M After Subsidies Expire

Sticker shock is beginning to surface in Affordable Care Act enrollment figures. Newly released federal data show that about 22.8 million people signed up for ObamaCare coverage effective January 1, roughly 1.4 million fewer than at the same time last year, according to the New York Times. That represents a decline of about 6% from the 24.2 million enrolled by mid-January 2025. Officials warn the number could drop further as consumers receive bills for higher-priced plans and decide to drop coverage.

The primary reason for the decline is the expiration of enhanced subsidies that were introduced during the pandemic. With those subsidies gone, many enrollees are facing significantly higher costs. Federal estimates indicate that average out-of-pocket premiums have roughly doubled. The Congressional Budget Office projects that about 2 million additional people will be uninsured this year as a result, while some independent analysts expect even larger coverage losses.

In Washington, concern is widespread but consensus remains elusive. The House has passed legislation to extend the expanded subsidies, but the same proposal has already failed in the Senate. A bipartisan group of senators is now working on a more limited extension with stricter eligibility rules, though the details and likelihood of passage are still unclear.

President Trump has sent mixed messages on the issue. His administration proposed extending the subsidies in November, and he has recently encouraged Republicans to be flexible on abortion-related provisions connected to the negotiations, signaling potential openness to a compromise. However, he told reporters on Sunday that he might veto a bill extending the subsidies, according to Reuters. Consumers have until Thursday to select plans that begin February 1. After that, open enrollment on the federal marketplace will close for most people until next year unless Congress takes action.