Gas prices are expected to keep climbing across California as tensions tied to the ongoing conflict involving Iran continue to shake global energy markets, according to fuel analysts.
Patrick De Haan, who leads petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said drivers should not expect any immediate relief, especially after negotiations between the United States and Tehran broke down. He warned that price swings are likely to continue, with already high costs in California putting additional strain on motorists.
Recent data shows gasoline prices increased in 39 states over the past week, pushing the national average higher. Diesel prices, however, dipped slightly in many areas, creating a temporary gap between the two. De Haan noted that this split likely will not last long, as rising oil prices driven by geopolitical uncertainty are expected to push both fuel types upward again.
He explained that renewed tensions and the collapse of diplomatic talks have contributed to the latest rise in oil prices. As a result, gasoline costs are projected to climb further in the coming days, with diesel likely to follow. Some inland regions, including parts of the Great Lakes and Plains, may soon see their highest gas prices since 2022, while markets that typically experience price cycling could face another round of increases soon.
Nationwide, the average price of gasoline rose by several cents over the past week, with most states reporting increases. Although diesel has shown modest declines in certain areas, analysts believe broader market forces will reverse that trend.
California remains one of the most expensive places for fuel, with the statewide average sitting around $5.96 per gallon, up significantly from $4.75 at the same time last year. Prices previously reached a high of $6.44 per gallon in June 2022 during the peak of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Across the country, the average price for a gallon of gas climbed to $4.17 on Tuesday, marking a four-year high.
Global oil markets have been reacting to growing uncertainty, particularly surrounding stalled discussions between the United States and Iran. Concerns about disruptions to key shipping routes have already pushed crude prices higher, a trend expected to impact consumers.
Analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that restricted flow through the Strait of Hormuz has contributed to the recent increase in oil prices. He added that as Asian refineries look for alternative supplies, U.S. crude exports likely reached a record level last week.
Within California, gas prices vary by region. Major urban areas such as San Jose and the Bay Area are seeing some of the highest costs, often exceeding $6 per gallon. Inland areas are slightly cheaper but still remain well above the national average.
Several factors are driving these high prices. In addition to global instability, California’s transition to its summer gasoline blend and ongoing refinery limitations are reducing supply. Increased U.S. crude exports and shifting global demand are also adding pressure.
Experts believe the situation will remain unstable in the near future, as markets react quickly to any new developments. With negotiations stalled and restrictions still affecting oil flow, prices are expected to remain unpredictable.
Highest gas prices by county in California:
Mono County — $6.88
Humboldt County — $6.33
Marin County — $6.20
San Francisco County — $6.17
Sierra County — $6.17
Lowest gas prices by county in California:
Yuba County — $5.59
Sutter County — $5.61
Tehama County — $5.62
Imperial County — $5.66
Tuolumne County — $5.69