Burger fans may want to brace for a pricier grilling season, as global instability in the Middle East is feeding into higher energy costs that are rippling through the food supply chain.
Rising tensions have helped push up fuel prices worldwide, which in turn is increasing expenses for producing and distributing beef as well as the propane many Americans use for backyard grills. That combination is arriving just as cookout season ramps up across the United States.
Glynn Tonsor, an agricultural economics professor at Kansas State University, said energy plays a role at nearly every stage of beef production. From running farm equipment to transporting cattle to processing facilities, fuel costs are embedded throughout the system. When those costs rise, they tend to show up later as higher prices for shoppers.
Fuel markets have already reflected the shift. The national average for regular gasoline has climbed to about $4.09 per gallon, roughly 93 cents higher than it was just a month ago, according to AAA. Diesel has seen an even sharper increase, reaching about $5.61 per gallon—up roughly $2.03 over the past year—raising transportation costs for meat and livestock across the country.
Those increases also extend to propane, which is widely used for outdoor grilling. Prices at the Mont Belvieu hub, a key U.S. benchmark, have jumped nearly 19% since the conflict in the Middle East escalated in late February, reflecting tighter global energy markets and the region’s major role in supply.
But energy costs aren’t the only factor pushing beef prices higher.
The U.S. cattle industry is still dealing with a long-term supply squeeze. Herd sizes have fallen to their lowest level in about 75 years, the result of drought conditions, higher operating expenses, and a shrinking number of ranchers. Unlike energy commodities, cattle production cannot quickly scale up, meaning shortages take years to correct.
That limited supply is already affecting grocery bills. Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows the average price of beef in stores rising from about $8.70 per pound in March 2025 to around $10.08 a year later—an increase of roughly 16%.
Even if fuel prices stabilize, economists note that beef prices tend to lag on the way down, meaning relief for consumers may not come quickly. For now, shoppers may continue to face higher costs at the meat counter, with future prices depending heavily on both global energy markets and whether demand for beef holds steady despite the increases.