Iran’s hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leadership has effectively assumed control over Tehran’s military decisions and negotiating posture in recent days, according to analysts.
Maj. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi, the IRGC commander, along with members of his inner circle, has reportedly taken a leading role in directing the Islamic Republic’s strategy. Analysts point to Iran’s recent attacks on ships attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran’s refusal to participate in peace talks with the United States this week as signs of this shift. The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said these developments indicate a more hardline stance from Iran’s leadership.
The shift also appears to have sidelined more moderate figures within Iran’s government, including Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi. Araghchi had initially agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend after reaching a consensus with the Trump administration. However, the IRGC insisted the strait remain closed in response to the American blockade of Iranian ports.
Vahidi reportedly secured support from Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and a longtime IRGC figure, to enforce control over the strategic waterway. This alliance has strengthened Vahidi’s influence within Iran. The IRGC’s fast attack boats now serve as Iran’s primary naval force in the area after U.S.-Israeli airstrikes destroyed more than 150 vessels from Iran’s conventional navy during the conflict.
Over the weekend, Iran attacked at least three ships attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, signaling that the critical oil chokepoint remains closed while hundreds of ships remain trapped in the Persian Gulf. The partnership between Vahidi and Zolghadr extends beyond military operations. Vahidi previously brought Zolghadr into Iran’s negotiating delegation earlier this month.
Zolghadr was tasked with ensuring the delegation followed directives from the IRGC and from Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who assumed leadership after his father’s death with the backing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, Zolghadr reported to senior IRGC leaders that Araghchi had exceeded his authority during negotiations by signaling flexibility on Iran’s support for the Axis of Resistance. Following the complaint, senior figures in Tehran, including former IRGC Intelligence Organization chief Hossein Taeb, reportedly ordered the negotiating team to return to Tehran.
As a result of these developments, analysts believe Vahidi has emerged as the most powerful decision-maker in Iran after Khamenei. The supreme leader has not appeared publicly since reportedly being injured during the initial U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that killed his father and several other senior officials.
This situation places Vahidi and the IRGC above officials such as Araghchi and Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Although both figures frequently use strong anti-American rhetoric, they are generally viewed as comparatively moderate within Iran’s political structure.
The shift in authority weakens Araghchi and Ghalibaf’s position in negotiations with the United States because they lack the authority to shape final decisions, according to the ISW. It also complicates statements from the Trump administration suggesting the United States was dealing with a reformed Iranian leadership following the deaths of numerous senior Iranian officials during the war.
With no date currently set for further U.S.-Iran talks, it remains uncertain whether the fragile cease-fire will continue beyond the deadline scheduled for Tuesday.