A Harvard budget analyst is cautioning that the financial impact of the Iran conflict could be significantly higher than what US officials have publicly acknowledged.
The Pentagon has estimated that the first six days of the joint US–Israel military campaign cost about $11.3 billion. However, Harvard Kennedy School professor Linda Bilmes argues the real figure is closer to $16 billion, according to reporting from CNBC. Looking further ahead, she warns that if the conflict continues on a similar trajectory, total war-related expenses could ultimately approach $1 trillion.
Bilmes’ analysis—completed shortly before a ceasefire was declared—projects roughly $2 billion in spending per day during a 40-day period of active fighting. She also factors in additional financial strain from equipment losses, including fighter jets, and the extremely high cost of replacing advanced weapons systems.
Israel is also reporting major expenditures. According to Israel’s finance ministry, operations connected to activities in Iran and Lebanon have already cost about $11.5 billion, while the country’s defense ministry is requesting additional multi-billion-dollar funding to sustain military efforts.
A key part of Bilmes’ argument is that Pentagon budgeting methods understate true costs by valuing weapons and munitions at their original purchase price rather than what it would cost to replace them today. She says this creates a misleading picture of the real financial burden.
She also points to long-term expenses that extend well beyond the battlefield, including rebuilding damaged infrastructure in the United States and allied countries, disability payments for an estimated 55,000 service members exposed during the conflict, and future weapons procurement. As an example, she highlights the imbalance between high-cost US defense systems—such as $4 million interceptors used to shoot down drones—and adversary drones that can be produced for around $30,000.
On the US side, the White House is reportedly seeking a defense budget increase to about $1.5 trillion, along with an additional $200 billion tied specifically to the conflict. With national debt now exceeding $31 trillion, Bilmes warns that interest payments alone will add substantially to the overall cost, and that these ongoing expenses will ultimately be borne by future generations.