by Paul Bedard,
President Trump’s support from likely black voters is nearly twice what campaign officials believe is needed to win reelection and 15 points under the level Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden needs, according to a new survey.
The latest John Zogby Strategies/EMI Research Solutions poll, which was taken after last week’s Republican National Convention that featured several minority speakers, put Trump’s support from black voters at 20%. For Biden, it is at 75%.
For Trump, that is 12 points more than he received in 2016 and 9 points more than campaign officials believe he needs to keep the White House. One senior official recently told Secrets, “If it’s at 11%, then we win.”
The polling analysis suggested that the rioting in cities and Trump’s law and order stance could be driving more black voters into his camp and robbing Biden of votes from the Democratic Party’s most loyal base.
The analysis said, “Biden should be pleased with his support among Democrats, women, and Hispanics but a lead of 75%-20% among blacks can spell real trouble. A Democrat needs 90%+ and a high turnout among blacks. Could it be that Trump’s law and order message is hitting home among blacks who are worried about demonstrations getting out of control? Biden holds 52%-35% among 18-29-year-olds but Barack Obama won with 66% in 2008 and 61% in 2012 among this young cohort.”
Paris Dennard, the campaign’s senior communications adviser for black media affairs, told Secrets, “It is not surprising to see numerous polls showing President Trump’s approval with black voters increasing. After watching both political conventions make their best case, black Americans are giving President Trump a second look, and many a first look, because they are learning more about his record of achievement and Joe Biden’s old and new policies that work against the black community coupled with Biden’s consistently offensive bigoted comments.”
Several other recent polls have found steady support for Trump from black voters.
The poll also found Biden leading Trump, but the lead shrank after the Republican convention.
In a two-way race, Biden leads Trump, 48% to 42%. In a four-way race that includes two independents, who are pulling votes away from Biden, the Democrat leads 45% to 42%.