Historically Accurate Election Model Finds Trump Will ‘Steamroll the Competition’ in 2020

https://ijr.com/election-model-trump-steamroll-competition-2020/

President Donald Trump looks poised to win a second term by a landslide, according to a new report released by Moody’s Analytics.

A new report by Moody’s Analytics, which has correctly predicted all but one presidential election since 1980, says that Trump could easily win the 2020 presidential election by an even larger margin than his victory in 2016.

The models found that Trump will win either 289, 332, or 351 Electoral College votes in 2020. The results are based on how consumers feel about the economy and their economic situation, stock market gains, and prospects for unemployment.

Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics and co-author of the report, told CNBC “It’s all about turnout,” adding that if Democrats are not energized and there is low turnout, Trump will “steam roll the competition.”

Zandi added that if the turnout “is the same a year from now, or roughly, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump’s election odds are very good.”

Of the three models, Trump fairs best with the ‘pocketbook model,’ which focuses on how people feel about their personal finances. In that model he wins 351 electoral votes to the generic Democrat’s 187 votes. The report emphasizes that “record turnout is vital to a Democratic victory.”

In the ‘unemployment model’ Trump wins 332 electoral votes to the Democrat’s 206, and in the ‘stock mark model’ he wins 289 electoral votes to the Democrat’s 249.

The new report was well received by Trump who shared it in a tweet saying:

“Looks good to me!”

%d bloggers like this: